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The Cost of Assumption

The Cost of Assumption

It often begins quietly.

A timeline is shared. A system is declared “ready.” Someone nods, and the room moves on.

Without realizing it, we’ve agreed to believe.

Most work runs not on facts, but on quiet inheritances. We take in reports, pipelines, metadata—rarely questioning what lies beneath. We assume the data is sound, that someone upstream validated the feed, that “clean” means what it should.

But assumption is not knowledge. It only dresses like it. And yet we act, not out of negligence but momentum—because the dashboards are populated, the pipelines are flowing, the language is familiar. We move forward, often unaware that the foundation we’re standing on has never really been checked. Every field, every table, every analytic insight is built on layers of invisible decisions. But we rarely ask who made them, under what constraints, or whether they still hold.

In clinical trials, that means protocols based on misaligned mappings, timelines thrown off by quiet data mismatches, or audits that surface structural issues no one saw coming. In commercial operations, it means decisions built on information that only appeared complete—segmentation strategies built on partial identifiers, forecasts drawn from distorted baselines.

By the time these assumptions surface, the cost is no longer theoretical. It’s rework. Delay. Erosion of trust.

What’s dangerous is not the occasional error. It’s the illusion of certainty. This isn’t a call for paranoia. It’s a call to clarify what we’re standing on before we build. Because most risks don’t look like risks until it’s too late to address them cleanly. And most organizations don’t have a visibility problem—they have a foundation problem. They need a way to interrogate what’s underneath.

Not everything that breaks makes a sound.

But it still breaks.

And if we’re serious about building things that last—strategies, trials, systems—we have to start earlier. We have to start with perception.

The work isn’t to slow down.

The work is to see sooner.


April 2025

Sofia Mercer

Data Is a Mirror
Data Is a Mirror